In this edition of Lens on Markets, Lindt & Sprüngli cut its 2026 organic sales growth forecast to 0%–2% from 4%–6%
Market Commentary
South African Market Summary
South African equities advanced on Tuesday, with the JSE All Share index gaining 0.31% to 109,440.71 points and the Top 40 rising 0.39% to 101,729.69. The South African Reserve Bank reported second-quarter foreign direct investment inflows of R49.8 billion, up from R20.3 billion in the previous quarter. Formal non-agricultural employment declined 0.1% quarter-on-quarter to 10.425 million. Separately, research commissioned by the Credit Association of South Africa estimated an annual formal credit gap of R7.97 billion to R9.4 billion among consumers earning below R10,000 monthly, with 59% of rejected borrowers turning to illegal lenders. French investment remains significant, with more than 480 French companies operating locally and approximately R165 billion invested despite regulatory, visa and skills-related challenges.
European Market Summary
European equities closed modestly lower on Tuesday as higher bond yields dampened risk appetite and outweighed renewed optimism across technology stocks. The STOXX 600 fell 0.1%, with banks down 0.5% and energy and food-and-beverage shares each declining 1.4%. European sovereign yields remained elevated as investors weighed persistent energy-driven inflation risks and increased government bond supply. In the UK, Lloyds Bank’s business confidence index fell 12 points to +41% in September, while wider economic optimism declined to +31% and firms’ own trading outlook eased to +50%. Separately, UK vehicle production increased 5.7% year-on-year to 40,872 units in August as domestic demand improved, although an escalating EU trade dispute remains a risk to the sector’s longer-term outlook.
US Market Summary
US equities ended modestly lower on Tuesday as rising Treasury yields pressured valuations ahead of key inflation and labour-market releases. The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.6206%, its highest since June 2002, while the benchmark 10-year yield climbed to 5.293%, the highest since June 2007. Equities recovered from earlier lows as yields eased and New York Fed President John Williams said policymakers had time to assess incoming data before raising rates again. Expectations for an October increase of at least 25 basis points subsequently fell to 51.5% from almost 70%. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index declined to 81.9 in September from 88.6, near a 12½-year low, while August job openings fell by 256,000 to 7.079 million and layoffs remained relatively subdued at 1.641 million.
Asian Market Summary
Asian equities were firmer this morning as investors assessed mixed regional economic signals. China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August, ending two months of contraction, while production and new orders improved to 51.7 and 50.5 respectively. However, weak domestic demand, investment and the prolonged property downturn continued to cloud the outlook. In Japan, industrial production unexpectedly fell 1.7% month-on-month in August, against expectations for a 1.7% increase, marking a second consecutive decline as vehicle and machinery output weakened. Meanwhile, Australian inflation accelerated in August, reinforcing concerns over persistent price pressures after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates to a 15-year high of 4.6% and signalled further tightening remained possible.
Currency Market Summary
The South African rand was little changed on Tuesday as investors balanced softer oil prices, firmer gold and domestic economic data. The US dollar remained strong on Wednesday, trading near its 2026 high against the euro and heading for its largest monthly gain versus the currency in 14 months. The euro fell to $1.1312 on Tuesday, its weakest level since May 2025, before trading around $1.1339 in Asian trade. The dollar has gained nearly 2.5% against the euro in September. Dollar strength also pushed the Australian dollar to a nine-week low of $0.6959 after softer-than-expected inflation data. The yen has proved more resilient, supported by recent US-Japan intervention, warnings against excessive weakness and a faster pace of Japanese interest-rate increases.The Fed's preferred inflation yardstick, US core PCE, is due out later on Wednesday though the market is focused on Friday's US jobs report which, if strong, could reinforce expectations that US interest rates are on the rise.
Commodity Market Summary
Oil prices rose on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump denied reports that he was prepared to ease sanctions on Iran, while Qatar continued efforts to facilitate peace talks. Brent is heading for an approximately 14% September gain, its strongest monthly advance since July, while WTI is on track to rise around 4% after recently exceeding $106 per barrel. Prices had fallen on Tuesday as Middle Eastern supply recovered, including resumed Saudi loadings from Yanbu following the restart of the East-West Pipeline. Regional crude exports reached 16.328 million barrels per day in September. US API data showed crude inventories rising by 1.02 million barrels last week. Meanwhile, gold was marginally lower this morning after gaining 1.63% in the previous session.
Domestic Company News
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA (ANH) -4.09%
Anheuser-Busch InBev repurchased 1,124,057 shares between 21 and 25 September 2026 under its share buy-back programme announced on 30 October 2025. The shares were acquired at an average price of €68.1120 per share for total consideration of €76.56 million, equivalent to approximately US$87.49 million. Daily repurchases ranged from 223,400 to 226,006 shares, with transaction prices spanning €67.26 to €69.32. Since the programme commenced on 3 November 2025, AB InBev has repurchased 32,805,776 shares for an aggregate €2.07 billion, or approximately US$2.40 billion. The cumulative repurchases represent 1.62% of the company’s total shares outstanding. The programme is being executed through a discretionary mandate granted to an independent financial intermediary.
MTN Group Limited (MTN) -1.81%
MTN Group provided an update on US Anti-Terrorism Act litigation involving the Zobay and Long cases. On 25 September 2026, the US District Court for the Eastern District of New York denied MTN’s requests to reconsider, or allow an immediate appeal of, an earlier ruling permitting certain claims in Zobay v. MTN Group Limited to proceed. MTN stressed that the decisions are procedural and do not represent findings of wrongdoing or liability. The Zobay case and related Long litigation will now enter discovery, after which parties may seek summary judgment. MTN said this stage will allow it to produce and obtain evidence addressing the plaintiffs’ allegations. The group maintains it was not a culpable participant in the attacks concerned and intends to defend the proceedings vigorously.
Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SSW) +0.12%
Sibanye-Stillwater’s ordinary shares have been approved for a secondary listing on the A2X exchange, with trading scheduled to commence on 6 October 2026. The Group’s primary listing on the JSE and secondary listing of American depositary shares on the New York Stock Exchange will remain unchanged, while its issued share capital will also be unaffected. Sibanye-Stillwater expects the additional listing to broaden investor access to its ordinary shares through another regulated South African trading platform, increasing shareholder choice and potentially supporting trading liquidity. A2X is a licensed stock exchange regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority and the Prudential Authority of the South African Reserve Bank under the Financial Markets Act. The listing expands the range of venues available for trading Sibanye-Stillwater shares.Global Company News
Global Company News
CarMax Inc. (KMX) +4.74%
CarMax reported higher second-quarter profit and revenue as its pricing strategy supported a rebound in used-car sales, sending shares up nearly 10%. The retailer has prioritised sales volumes over profit per vehicle, helping offset pressure from elevated interest rates, inflation and constrained availability of lower-priced used cars. Vehicles priced below $15,000 had only 29 days of supply, 15 days below the industry average, according to Cox Automotive. CEO Keith Barr said CarMax’s higher-income customer base expanded during the quarter, prompting the company to shift inventory towards newer vehicles with lower mileage. CarMax also recorded a modest increase in demand for hybrid and electric vehicles, although petrol-powered vehicles continued to account for the large majority of its overall vehicle sales.
Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LISN) -8.40%
Lindt & Sprüngli cut its 2026 organic sales growth forecast to 0%–2% from 4%–6%, marking its second downgrade this year, as record European heatwaves and higher chocolate prices weighed on demand. The company said historically elevated cocoa costs, up about 80% over six months, forced substantial price increases and made consumers more price sensitive. European heatwaves reduced growth by roughly 1.5%, while seasonal products, premium gift boxes and praline assortments saw particularly weak volumes. Despite the softer sales outlook, Lindt maintained guidance for a 20–40 basis-point increase in its 2026 operating margin and reiterated medium-term targets for 6%–8% organic growth from 2028. Management plans smaller packaging formats, continued cost savings and higher brand investment to support a recovery in 2027.
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Research Team