Rivian aises 2026 delivery guidance amid strong demand

Market Commentary

South African Market Summary

South African equities closed firmer, with the JSE All Share index gaining 0.76% to 110,449.25 points and the Top 40 advancing 0.80% to 102,083.88 points. Domestic corporate attention centred on the next phase of online grocery competition, where artificial intelligence is becoming a strategic differentiator rather than speed alone. Shoprite remains the market leader through Checkers Sixty60, which grew 48% in fiscal 2025 and generated R18.9 billion in digital revenue. Pick n Pay is responding with Penny, an AI assistant in its asap! app powered by Google’s Gemini models, enabling customers to shop via voice, text or images. Politically, coalition tensions remain relevant, with DA leader Geordin Hill-Lewis again pressing the ANC for broader consultation.

European Market Summary

European equities advanced on Thursday, with the STOXX 600 rising 1.4% to a record close as broad sector strength offset weakness in AI-linked technology stocks. Healthcare led the move, gaining 3.3%, supported by an 8.9% rally in Bayer after the group consolidated its US Roundup business into Ruveon following a favourable legal development. In contrast, the technology index fell 2.1%, with Soitec and Aixtron under pressure as global AI-exposed names retreated. Investors also assessed softer US jobs data and eurozone inflation that rose less than expected in June. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that growth and inflation risks had become more balanced, although markets still expect at least one further 25-basis-point rate increase before year-end.

US Market Summary

US equities ended mixed ahead of the Independence Day holiday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising more than 1% to a record closing high, while the S&P 500 finished flat and renewed chip weakness weighed on the Nasdaq. Sentiment improved after nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, well below expectations for 110,000, reducing concerns around further Federal Reserve tightening. The unemployment rate came in at 4.2%, broadly in line with forecasts, while September rate-hike expectations eased to 55% from 64.1%. Apple gained 4.8% after reports of five new iPhone models, supporting the major indices. Tesla fell 7.5% despite stronger-than-expected deliveries, as recent optimism appeared priced into the share price.

Asian Market Summary

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Friday as investors continued to rotate out of technology shares, following renewed weakness in US chip and AI-linked stocks. Regional sentiment was supported by still-expanding services data, although momentum showed signs of moderation. In China, the RatingDog General Services PMI eased to 54.1 in June from 54.4 in May, remaining comfortably above the 50-point expansion threshold as new business growth slowed, while overseas demand rose at the fastest pace in 20 months. Japan’s services sector returned to expansion, with the final S&P Global Services PMI rising to 52.2 from 50.0, signalling renewed activity growth. However, confidence remained subdued as Middle East tensions and cost pressures continued to weigh on business expectations.

Commodity Market Summary

Gold rose more than 1% on Friday and headed for its first weekly gain in five, supported by softer-than-expected US jobs data that reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The move reinforced gold’s sensitivity to real-rate expectations, particularly ahead of the US Independence Day market closure. Oil also edged higher as investors balanced cautious optimism around US-Iran peace efforts with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supply. Supply flows are recovering, with Kuwait’s output rising to 1.65 million barrels per day in June from 580,000 in May, while Saudi oil shipments through Hormuz accelerated as Aramco used spot pricing to support Asian sales.

Currency Market Summary

The rand strengthened on Thursday as the US dollar weakened sharply following softer-than-expected labour market data, while lower oil prices added further relief for South African assets. US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, well below expectations for 110,000, while the labour force participation rate fell to 61.5%, its lowest level in more than five years. The data prompted investors to scale back expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike, with September hike pricing falling to 52% from 64% previously. The dollar index slipped to 100.77 and headed for its biggest weekly decline since early April. Softer Treasury yields also eased pressure on emerging-market currencies, while the yen found support from the weaker greenback.

Domestic Company Update

Hudaco Industries Limited (HDC) +0.19%

Hudaco delivered a resilient interim performance for the six months to 31 May 2026, with continuing-operations revenue rising 9.5% to R4.21 billion and operating profit increasing 11.2% to R485 million. Comparable earnings per share advanced 12.4% to 978 cents, reflecting solid underlying trading momentum despite portfolio clean-up costs. Reported headline earnings per share fell 32.9% to 629 cents, largely distorted by discontinued operations, including the alternative energy business and parts of Eternity Technologies. Encouragingly, the board lifted the interim dividend by 10.0% to 385 cents per share, signalling confidence in cash generation and balance-sheet strength. The dividend is payable on 11 August 2026, with the share trading ex-dividend from 5 August 2026.

Supermarket Income REIT plc (SRI) +0.21%

Supermarket Income REIT has strengthened its capital structure through a £445 million refinancing that lowers borrowing costs and extends debt maturity. The package comprises £375 million of syndicated facilities and a £70 million bilateral facility, replacing unsecured loan facilities due over the next two years. The refinancing lifts weighted average debt maturity from 2.9 years to 3.8 years and leaves the company with no debt maturing before June 2028. The average drawn margin of 1.18% above SONIA should generate annual interest savings of around £0.3 million. With 98% of debt fixed or hedged to June 2028 and a weighted average cost of debt of 4.4%, SUPR retains funding visibility and lender support.

Optasia VAS Investments Limited (OPA) +6.46%

Optasia delivered a strong first-half trading update, with revenue expected to rise 50% to 60% for the six months to 30 June 2026, supported by continued momentum in mobile financial services. MFS now contributes about 72% of group revenue, reinforcing its position as the core growth engine. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase 40% to 50%, while Normalised Net Income should rise 30% to 40%. Growth across Ghana, Pakistan, Indonesia and Congo-Brazzaville helped offset the temporary airtime credit disruption in Nigeria. The group also expanded into Gabon and South Sudan and launched its first merchant lending product. Optasia reaffirmed FY2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA growth guidance above 30%, with interim results due around 14 September 2026.

Global Company Update

Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) +8.44%

Rivian shares rallied more than 10% after the electric vehicle maker lifted its 2026 delivery guidance, signalling stronger demand across its R1 platform, electric delivery vans and newly launched R2 SUV. The group now expects to deliver 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles this year, up from 62,000 to 67,000 previously and ahead of Visible Alpha’s 63,138 estimate. Second-quarter deliveries rose more than 14% to 12,194 vehicles, also beating expectations. The R2 is central to Rivian’s growth strategy, targeting Tesla’s Model Y with a lower-priced SUV range. However, execution risk remains elevated, with around 45,000 deliveries required in the second half to reach the midpoint of guidance and affordability still a key industry challenge.

 Tesla Inc. (TSLA) -7.49%

Tesla delivered a record second quarter, with vehicle deliveries rising about 25% year on year to 480,126 units, well ahead of Visible Alpha estimates of 402,776. The outperformance was driven by a recovery in Europe, stronger China momentum following the refreshed Model Y, attractive financing, lower-cost variants and inventory drawdowns after production reached 451,758 vehicles. The result strengthens confidence that Tesla could end its two-year run of annual delivery declines, although US demand remains pressured by the removal of EV tax credits. Investors still reacted cautiously, with shares down around 7% as recent optimism appeared priced in. Attention now turns to 22 July results and Tesla’s heavy AI, robotaxi, Cybercab and Optimus investment programme.

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