Tesla Q3 Deliveries Beat Expectations

Market Commentary

South African Market Summary

South African equities ended Friday firmer, with the FTSE/JSE Top 40 gaining 0.61% to 100,779.56 and the All Share rising 0.57% to 108,378.40 as miners and financials strengthened. Residential property transaction volumes declined year on year in Q2 2026 amid elevated interest rates and global uncertainty, although Gauteng showed early signs of recovery. Santova forecast six-month HEPS growth of 55.4%–60.4%, while AngloGold Ashanti was publicly censured by the JSE over delayed SENS disclosure. Glencore raised its 2026 Marketing Adjusted EBIT expectation to above $5 billion. Unilever invested R100 million in a new Durban Vaseline production line, increasing capacity to 80% of global supply, while August international tourist arrivals exceeded one million, up 7.4% year on year, taking January–August arrivals above 7.5 million.

European Market Summary

European equities rebounded on Friday, with the STOXX 600 gaining 0.8% after touching a three-month low in the previous session, as retreating oil prices and weaker-than-expected US employment data reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve tightening. Eurozone inflation nevertheless accelerated to 3.8% in September from 3.2% in August, exceeding the 3.6% consensus, as higher fuel, natural gas and food costs intensified price pressures. The stronger inflation reading kept expectations for further ECB tightening elevated, with markets pricing an approximately 82% probability of a December rate increase. European bond markets recovered, with Germany’s 10-year Bund yield falling more than six basis points to 3.454%. French fiscal concerns remained prominent as investors assessed elevated government debt, political uncertainty and the proposed 2027 austerity budget.

US Market Summary

US equities advanced on Friday after weaker-than-expected labour data reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase later this month. Non-farm payrolls rose by just 29,000 in September, well below the 90,000 consensus, while prior months were revised sharply lower. The unemployment rate increased to 4.2% from 4.1% and annual wage growth slowed to 3.0% from 3.1%, reinforcing signs of labour-market cooling. Markets cut the probability of an October 25-basis-point rate hike to 22.7%, from 64.2% a week earlier. Despite Friday’s gains, the Dow and S&P 500 recorded a fourth weekly decline in five, while the Nasdaq posted its fifth weekly gain in six. Tesla rose 4.65% after deliveries beat expectations, while Ford fell 1.39% as quarterly US vehicle sales declined 6.6%.

Asian Market Summary

Asian markets started Monday strongly as investors reduced expectations for an aggressive Federal Reserve tightening cycle following weaker-than-expected US employment data, while the dollar softened and bonds stabilised. Trading remained thin with markets in China and South Korea closed for holidays and New South Wales observing a public holiday. In Japan, services activity continued expanding in September but lost momentum, with the final S&P Global Services PMI easing to 51.3 from 52.5 in August, below the 51.6 flash estimate. South Korea’s September exports surged 83.5% year on year to a record $120.9 billion, comfortably exceeding expectations for 62.0% growth, as semiconductor shipments more than tripled. January–September exports reached $814.5 billion, surpassing $800 billion for the first time and already exceeding 2025’s full-year record of $709.3 billion.

Currency Market Summary

The South African rand recorded a 2.23% weekly decline as a stronger US dollar, rising global bond yields and reduced appetite for riskier assets pressured the local currency. The rand remained softer against the greenback on Monday morning. The dollar started the week near a 17-month high, although weaker-than-expected US employment data reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase in October. Much of the dollar’s recent strength had reflected expectations for additional Fed tightening, but Friday’s labour-market data prompted investors to reassess the likely policy path. Meanwhile, the euro remained under pressure at around $1.1246, close to its weakest level since May 2025, after four consecutive weekly declines. Concerns over France’s elevated debt levels and potential political gridlock ahead of next year’s election continued to weigh on the common currency.

Commodity Market Summary

Gold prices edged higher on Monday as softer US economic data sharply reduced expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate increase, supporting demand for the non-yielding metal. Oil prices moved lower as rising Middle East crude exports and a planned G7 release of 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves improved supply expectations. Middle Eastern exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of the final seven days of September despite attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical risks remained elevated after Houthi forces claimed attacks on Saudi Aramco sites, while Yemen’s Saudi-backed government launched a campaign to retake Houthi-controlled territory. OPEC+ kept November production targets unchanged, Saudi Aramco cut November Asian crude prices to six-year lows, and Ukraine signalled plans to intensify attacks on Russian oil refineries.

Domestic Company News 

AngloGold Ashanti plc (ANG) +0.61%
The JSE has publicly censured AngloGold Ashanti after finding the company breached listing requirements governing simultaneous disclosure across exchanges. On 1 August 2025, AngloGold Ashanti released its Q2 and six-month earnings and dividend declaration via Businesswire at 12:07 SAST and on its website and Bloomberg at 12:10, but the information only appeared on SENS at 12:34. The JSE, which was open throughout, found that simultaneous or near-simultaneous disclosure was reasonably achievable despite the company’s view that it was not. The regulator said the delayed SENS release created a risk of unequal access to inherently price-sensitive information, potentially allowing some investors to trade before others received the same information. The public censure reflects the JSE’s emphasis on fairness, transparency and market integrity.

Glencore plc (GLN) +3.80%
Glencore has raised its full-year 2026 Marketing Adjusted EBIT expectation to above $5 billion, following near-record first-half performance and continued strength across crude oil, refined products, gas and freight markets. The group also introduced an updated long-term Marketing guidance methodology, effective from 2027, linking expected Adjusted EBIT outcomes to funding costs and Readily Marketable Inventories. Based on RMI of $32.2 billion at 30 June 2026 and a marketing funding cost of approximately 5%, the methodology indicates a long-term midpoint of about $3.5 billion, within a $2.8 billion to $4.2 billion range. Glencore also expects trading in its ASX secondary listing, under ticker GLC, to commence on 14 October 2026, with each CDI representing one ordinary share and conversions available to existing shareholders subject to applicable requirements.

Santova Limited (SNV) +4.17%
Santova expects materially higher earnings for the six months ended 31 August 2026, with EPS forecast at 54.34c–56.13c, representing growth of 51.9%–56.9% from the restated 35.78c reported a year earlier. HEPS is expected between 55.46c and 57.24c, up 55.4%–60.4% from 35.68c. The improvement reflects a full six-month contribution from the Seabourne Group, more favourable foreign exchange movements, stronger performances across several key operations, particularly in the United Kingdom and Netherlands, and higher freight rates. Prior-period figures were restated following completion of Seabourne’s purchase price allocation under IFRS 3.45 on 28 February 2026. The restatement resulted in adjustments to the comparative EPS and HEPS figures presented. The trading statement has not been reviewed or audited, while interim results are expected on or before 27 October 2026.

Global Company News

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) +4.65%
Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, beating analysts’ average estimate of 456,896 and putting the company on course to end two consecutive years of declining annual sales. The result was supported by a recovery in Europe, where EU registrations rose by about two-thirds year on year in January–August, alongside stronger September registrations in France and Denmark. Analysts now expect 1.82 million deliveries in 2026, up from a June consensus of 1.65 million, while Tesla needs 311,448 additional deliveries to match last year’s total. Demand was also supported by a stronger order backlog entering the quarter. Investors remain focused on Tesla’s longer-term AI, robotaxi and humanoid robotics ambitions, while quarterly results are scheduled for 21 October after the market close.

Ford Motor Company (F) -1.39%
Ford’s third-quarter US vehicle sales fell 6.6% year on year as the automaker phased out its Escape and Lincoln Corsair crossover models. Demand continued shifting towards hybrids as elevated fuel prices and broader affordability pressures influenced consumer purchasing decisions. Ford said hybrid demand was strengthening, including for its F-150, while sales of the hybrid-capable Maverick pickup rose just over 20% to 41,970 units. Total truck sales increased 0.5% to 315,112 vehicles, providing some resilience against the broader decline. The company continues to face intense competition from Asian manufacturers, including Toyota and Honda, whose hybrid-heavy line-ups are gaining market share. Affordability remains another constraint, with average new-vehicle transaction prices rising 1.9% to $50,089 in August despite lower auto loan rates.

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