Visa beats earnings, lifts outlook on strong spending and cross border growth

Market Performance

South African Market Summary

South African equities weakened, with the JSE All Share Index declining by 1.86% to 114,400.33 points and the Top 40 falling by 2.05% to 106,581.68 points, reflecting broader risk off sentiment. On the macro front, the composite leading business cycle indicator rose 0.5% month-on-month in February, signalling modest underlying economic momentum. Investor focus now shifts to key domestic data releases, including producer inflation, money supply, private sector credit, trade balance and fiscal metrics, which will provide further insight into economic conditions. In a supportive policy move, government announced a temporary reduction in the fuel levy through June, aimed at mitigating inflationary pressures linked to elevated global oil prices.

European Market Summary

European equities closed near a three-week low, with the STOXX 600 declining 0.4% as mixed corporate earnings, geopolitical uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict and caution ahead of key central bank decisions weighed on sentiment. Germany’s DAX fell 0.3%, marking a seventh consecutive session of losses, its longest losing streak since 2024. Investor focus now turns to upcoming European Central Bank and Bank of England meetings for guidance on inflation, growth and the interest rate trajectory. Meanwhile, EU fiscal dynamics remain in focus following a European Parliament vote supporting a larger long-term budget to enhance defence and competitiveness spending.

US Market Summary

US equities closed lower, retreating from record highs as renewed concerns around the sustainability of the artificial intelligence investment cycle pressured technology stocks. Semiconductor shares, a key driver of year-to-date gains, led declines, with the Nasdaq posting its largest daily loss in a month. Investor focus has shifted to the imminent earnings releases from major AI-linked megacaps, including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Apple, which are expected to provide critical insight into demand trends and capital intensity. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve meeting remains in focus, with markets anticipating unchanged rates but closely monitoring guidance amid inflation risks linked to elevated energy prices.

Asian Market Summary

Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed, tracking weaker US cues as investors assessed developments in energy markets and emerging risks within the artificial intelligence ecosystem. In Australia, inflation accelerated, with CPI rising 1.4% quarter-on-quarter and 4.1% year-on-year, reinforcing expectations of potential monetary tightening amid persistent core inflation. In China, manufacturing momentum is expected to moderate, with the PMI forecast to ease to 50.1, reflecting rising input costs linked to geopolitical tensions. Overall, regional sentiment remains cautious, as elevated energy prices and policy uncertainty weigh on growth expectations and central bank trajectories.

Commodity Market Summary

Oil prices extended a multi-day rally, supported by escalating supply risks as the US considers prolonging its blockade of Iranian ports, intensifying disruptions across the Middle East. Tightening fundamentals were reinforced by declining US inventories, with crude, gasoline and distillate stocks all falling, signalling robust demand and constrained supply. Additional support stems from rising geopolitical tensions and uncertainty within OPEC following the UAE’s reported exit, potentially weakening coordinated supply control. In contrast, gold traded broadly flat amid volatile conditions, with investors adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of Federal Reserve guidance, particularly around inflation risks linked to elevated energy prices.

Currency Market Summary

The South African rand weakened against a firmer US dollar, pressured by elevated oil prices linked to Middle East supply disruptions and cautious investor positioning ahead of key central bank data releases. The dollar strengthened as markets focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, widely expected to leave rates unchanged, while guidance on inflation and geopolitical risks remains critical. Thin trading conditions in Asia, due to regional holidays, kept currency moves contained. Overall, currency markets remain range-bound, with the rand vulnerable to external shocks, particularly energy price volatility and shifting global monetary policy expectations.

Domestic Company News

Anglo American plc (AGL) -5.49

Anglo American reported a solid first-quarter performance, with copper production rising 1% to 170kt, supported by improved throughput at Los Bronces and Collahuasi, partially offset by lower grades at Quellaveco. Premium iron ore output declined marginally by 2% to 15.2Mt, reflecting slightly weaker volumes from Kumba and Minas-Rio, while manganese production surged 118% following prior weather-related disruptions. Diamonds increased 17% to 7.1Mct, while steelmaking coal fell 31% due to operational disruptions, and nickel declined 7% on maintenance. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance and highlighted continued progress on portfolio optimisation, including planned disposals and the pending Teck merger, positioning the group to strengthen its copper-focused growth profile.

Kumba Iron Ore Limited (KIO) -1.24%

Kumba Iron Ore reported a stable first-quarter performance, with production declining 2% to 8.8Mt as the group optimised mine stockpiles ahead of Transnet’s planned maintenance shutdown, partially offset by improved output at Sishen. Sales volumes increased 3% to 9.3Mt, supported by enhanced logistics performance and improved equipment availability at Saldanha Bay Port. Realised export prices averaged US$93/wmt, representing an 8% premium to benchmark pricing. Management reaffirmed FY2026 guidance, highlighting resilient supply chains despite Middle East disruptions. Strategically, progress continues on Sishen’s UHDMS project, while renewable energy integration at Kolomela supports decarbonisation, reinforcing Kumba’s focus on operational discipline and sustainable value delivery.

African Rainbow Minerals Limited (ARI) -3.19%

African Rainbow Minerals announced a conditional multi-year nickel concentrate off-take agreement with Boliden Commercial AB, securing a potential sales route from the Nkomati Nickel Mine. The agreement is subject to key conditions, including board approval for restarting open-pit mining, regulatory clearances and responsible sourcing due diligence. The transaction strengthens the Nkomati restart case by underpinning future revenue visibility. Concentrate will be processed at Boliden’s low-emission Harjavalta smelter in Finland, providing access to European markets with increasing demand for responsibly sourced nickel. The development aligns with ARM’s strategy to position within the clean energy value chain while enhancing long-term project viability.

Combined Motor Holdings Limited (CMH) -3.46%

Combined Motor Holdings reported a robust financial performance for the year ended 28 February 2026, with revenue increasing 18.6%, supported by solid trading conditions and operational execution. Operating profit rose 17.1%, reflecting effective cost management and margin resilience. Earnings momentum was strong, with basic earnings per share up 31.7% and headline earnings per share increasing 33.0%, indicating underlying profitability gains. The balance sheet strengthened materially, with cash resources rising 20.0% and net asset value per share advancing 11.9%. Overall, the results highlight sustained earnings growth, improved liquidity and a disciplined capital framework, positioning the group well to navigate evolving market conditions.

Global Company News

Visa Inc. (V) -0.11%

Visa reported a strong second-quarter performance, with adjusted EPS of $3.31 exceeding consensus expectations, supported by robust payment volumes and resilient consumer spending. Payments volume increased 9%, while cross-border volumes rose 12% (constant currency), reflecting sustained global travel and trade activity despite geopolitical disruptions. Data processing revenue grew 18% to $5.54 billion, underscoring continued network strength. The asset-light model remains insulated from credit risk, with higher-income consumer resilience offsetting softer lower-end demand. Visa raised FY2026 EPS guidance to low-teens growth and announced a $20 billion share buyback. Strategic expansion into stablecoin-linked payments further enhances long-term growth optionality.

Coca-Cola Company (KO) +3.86%

The Coca-Cola Company reported a strong first-quarter performance, exceeding expectations and raising its FY2026 earnings guidance, signalling resilience amid rising input cost pressures. Revenue of $12.47 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.86 both surpassed consensus, supported by 3% volume growth across all regions, outpacing pricing. While higher energy and packaging costs, particularly aluminium and PET, weighed modestly on margins, effective hedging and cost management limited the impact. Management reiterated organic revenue growth targets and now expects EPS growth of 8%–9%. Continued investment in low- and no-sugar beverages and adjacent categories supports demand durability, reinforcing Coca-Cola’s defensive positioning in a volatile macro environment.

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